Development and the arising of option market will be basic with the development of spot market, the appearance of option market can again regulate and guide two mutual promotion and the development of spot market , dense cannot divide. Now, the existent various defect of the merchandise market on-hand stock has influenced the perfect merchandise market on-hand stock, cultivation and the normal development of due goods market seriously, have looked very necessary for promoting the development of option market.
The relation
1, spot market is material
( 1) option market arising is spot market goes on constantly outside prolong expansion and intension the result of deepening. It is come to that for trade way, futures trading is from the development of sale for cash of the merchandise on-hand stock. The limitedness of trade way that shows because of the enlargement of merchandise trade scale, as well as because of the commercial crisis possibility that this kind of limitedness brings , have caused the timeliness contradictory and space contradiction in merchandise exchange together. As this kind of contradiction is constantly sharp and intensification, have caused the arising of forward contract trade way. Because of market scope extend constantly, merchandise trade in different region and between not at the same time the phenomenon that often arises price change greatly, the both sides of forward contract trade regular because of the change of price break promise , so, have again aggravated the basic contradiction of the society of commodity economy - - private labor is conversely further the contradiction between and social labor. This contradictory last alleviation is to have been completed through the standardization of merchandise trade contract through the establishment of the market that has organization of special trade merchandise contract. This kind of market that has organization is the option market with exchange as core.
( 2) option market operation and development is over establishment the material foundation in market operation actual needs. In the operation process of modern market system, the relation between the price of option market and the price of spot market is , spot price is the foundation of futures price change. Futures price when basic reflection the prerequisite of the price change tendency of spot market takes off , pass make spot price tend to balanced step by step constantly for the adjustment role that spot market lets beg. The merchandise business of futures trading develop must be basic with spot market obviously. The operation process in option market in, on-hand stock or material object complete a business transaction is to join the tie of option market and spot market. Because complete a business transaction is the composition part of option market , it is also the composition part of spot market, or saying is option market falls on spot market any. Evidently, on-hand stock the necessariness of completing a business transaction lies in make futures price last can belong to the price of spot market again, so, making spot market genuine become the material of the development and operation of option market, is basic.
( 3) have some inner quantity proportion between spot market and option market to concern. The operation process in modern market system in between, option market and spot market the quantity proportion had relation situation, often decide the benign condition of entire market relation. No matter merchandise futures are still financial futures, it contains the difference between spot price and both actually on price amount, have formed the base difference in futures trading. This kind of base difference general want as complete a business transaction issue is close to and unceasing to tend to reduction. In the merchandise process of futures trading, base bad change has obvious regularity: If base difference has surpassed the restriction of certain quantity, so, option market will occur the variation on nature because of breaking away from the foundation of spot market excessively, fall onto pure speculative market. When the inside of option market, the hedge business of on-hand stock will also maintain certain proportion with speculative business , can occur two opposite phenomenons if breaking through this kind of proportion: If hedge person will reduce the mobility of option market relatively too much, so, making on-hand stock protect worth business, undertake the speculator of risk because of being hard to find and can not shift risk; If speculator is relatively too much, will increase the not rational behavior in futures trading, make hedge person be hard to search is actual to protect value position, so, reduce the evasive degree of option market for the operation risk of spot market.
2, option market can
The development of option market will be basic with spot market, however, once option market has formed and developed under the promotion of the inner requirement of spot market, it will reaction spot market, come through its unique economic function can move land the development and operation that regulates and guides spot market. This kind of regulation and guide take affect , embody in some following aspects:
( 1) so lock cost through trade person hedge, coming realize , is for the regulation of spot market and guide. The price that forms on spot market, no matter relying on the planned production of government formed by direct administrative intervention, price is still the market free price that forms in complete free competitive market , are all the prices of spot market of a kind of brief signal. Under former a kind of condition, the administrativeness intervention restraint of government once deviate from market law of value, producer gets the guide of material interests relation, must or is clear or change its production darkly quickly production and the direction of operation structure, so, make the production process of whole society deeply fall into the economic concussion of " increase the price by - - produce - - reduce - - less produce - - increase the price by - - again produce excessively ". Under a kind of rear condition, the free price of spot market on a kind of sight market arising is let completely by market to ask for the free production of control price, is a kind of fluctuation is larger, sometimes, even make having production manage the market price of short period with also gaping manufacturer of experience. These productions manager at most merely these prices accept person, them can only follow the brief signal of spot price to go , so often make produce operation campaign hysteresis the change of market supply-demand relationship, cause concussion and the fluctuation in socioeconomy operation process. The direct reasons of concussion and this kind of fluctuation are that the production and operation cost of manufacturer can not determine in advance. Only this kind of uncertainty of production cost has increased the uncertainty of national policy and the uncertainty in production process.
The way out that solves this problem lies in , develops option market, between the involved party of option market, open price offer and fair trade sell the futures of identical quantity while buying in a kind of same merchandise on-hand stock , carry out ample market choice, may reach lock and the risk of evasive price fluctuation with reasonable hedge to expect to manage the purpose of cost. It also has such a kind of economic function because of option market , has just formed the regulation of option market and guides mechanism and the function of spot market.
( 2) the expected role of passing for future price comes to regulate and guide spot market. Under not have the condition of option market, the commodity price on spot market not only has briefness and mutability, and the very price as well as process of forming of market price propagation signal return have scatter sex , not definiteness and hysteresis. These problems for enterprise, is in its production the process of managing a kind of inner risk, direct influence the operation of enterprise effect. And after option market appears , condition is not identical.
On option market directly marching into the arena to represent trade personage what do business is that the futures that have the member qualification of futures trading manage company make city representative. This reflection makes option market have organization and enter the strictance of city. In the place of futures trading, the futures that city sends for representing the customer and broker who directly accepts its company outside the stadium business instruction, in present according to time, it is prior , free price offer , the principle matched voluntarily and open, just, fair principle do business. Here, trade place has become actually , is numerous to buy person and sell the set land of person. It is these to buy person and sells person to pass to give trade instruction, send self in site about the judgment of the merchandise supply-demand relationship and its change tendency of spot market , have also become the numerous set of the factor that influences the merchandise supply and demand of spot market by this option market, have so formed a kind of can reflect the futures of merchandise supply-demand relationship and its change tendency relatively accurately price. The more is close to material object to complete a business transaction to expect, actuality, openness, continuity and the forecast of this kind of price are obvious. This is also the basic content of the price discovery mechanism of so-called option market. Option market is only synthesized, processed, handled and believed through this kind of price discovery mechanism and propagates the market message of two natures, develop its guide for spot market to take affect.
( 3) option market again realize through own trade rule for guide and the regulation of spot market. If be former to state , option market is a kind of modern market that has organization , on this kind of market, the high organization of ample autonomous behavior and market whole of market trade main part combines organicly innerly together. This may act completely rely on own subjective judgment namely, in market involved party is engaged in the process of futures trading. However, this does not express market involved party( make city representative, broker and site diplomatic easy personage) may complete disregarding and the trade rule of market wants with heart land behavior. It is just opposite, trade rule is all trade personages place must comply with conscientiously. Stipulate for instance, in the trade rule of option market, the price when a kind of futures merchandise rises or drops in a very short time to a kind of certain price, avoid since futures price fluctuate substantially cause the supply-demand relationship excessive concussion of spot market , trade personage has to stop trade temporarily. So as soon as coming , trade involved party may face reality , carries out a sober thought , then begins the trade of new round of reason continuously. This actually is the trade that will go on on spot market originally reach has gone to option market. Option market has not only slowed down contradiction and the conflict of the operation of spot market , and has reduced the trade cost of spot market, so, have played the part of the role of regulating and guiding spot market.
Influence the factor
1, regional market develops
Regional market is the space expression form of market growth, as it, will wait for the condition of aspect according to different natural resource situation, productivity development level, merchandise trade frequency as well as consumer custom , make trade campaign collect in specific space , so produce and run. On space distribution, the regional market interaction that has only various different types , mutual supplementary, mutual contact and interaction then can form a complete market system. It is turning rail period , causes the reason of different Chinese regional market growth degree to be many , is mainly:
( 1) area market form determine mostly through administrative area, in which depend on as is not the economic contact in established area, district occasion relation also does not carry out organization through market and coordination, pass through the organization of governments at various levels manage and control layer upon layer to straighten. This is a kind of typical way of " administration makes market " actually. In the regional market of administrativeness, the market behavior on genuine meaning is very few, what holding together contacts each between economic main part is that a kind of plan of very strong administrativeness is machine made, trade behavior will often submit to in administrative coordination. Because of role and the existence of this kind of administrative power, just make China have formed various covert tariff ramparts in turning rail economy , so obstruct the natural flow of merchandise and factor of production.
( 2) difference or the discrepancy on macroscopic policy treats , have caused the non balance between regional market to develop. The accommodation policy of region that the times of planned economy leave still has very strong operation inertia, in besides when reforming , it is eastern that policy inclines to coastal region , even more pulls , , the economic gap between 3 west big areas. Though commodity economy has gotten quick development in each area, at the same time, has also offered policy foundation for local protectionism.
( 3 between) different regional market when some quite the misleading of industrial policy take off, have caused the structure in the development process of regional economies to tend to same phenomenon, the factor of production and product that makes district be used in trade between occasion decrease constantly. This is to turn the major reason that factor of production does not flow , district is hard to form coordinative relation between occasion of rail period.
( 4) in regional market operation machine made aspect, market main scale is less, hard to form greater trade radius, so when district occasion forms the opportunity of the flow of factor of production, related market main part is realistic because of being hard to be qualified and can not turn. At the same time, price system is impossible to form the relation of comparative advantage between regional market under twisted state, this is cause turn the major system foundation of regional market segmentation of rail period.
2, urban and rural market
China is a large country in the development that has the typical feature of dual economy. Various information shows between, the Chinese urban and rural market since reform, it is to go on in two different systems completely to deviate from degree to pull the growth of big, city market and countryside market constantly. Between this two kinds of market system, there are the communication way that seldom belongs to merchandise trade , or say that the contact between urban and rural market stays only in the aspect of the agricultural supply and marketing of consumer goods of means of production , and does not have factor of production especially the market exchange relation of capital essential factor.
Though countryside reforms , is strengthening the market economic ideas such as competition, price and the market of masses of peasant gradually, they have begun to have formed the pull current of certain supply demand relations in the market trading market environment of community Cheng, and for market change, can make recent reaction, but producing the forward idea of operation and avoid dangerous consciousness is very light still. This has decided in the peasant in short period, will not have to enter the possibility of option market. Additionally, the self service organization of peasant always develops to slow comparatively, thus how to organize masses of peasant to enter market together straight become the difficulty of countryside market growth. Obviously, production scatters , the peasant household with limited scale will not become the hedge of the Chinese option market of agricultural product.
3 has too much obstacle
In the aspect of merchandise market, no matter the market of consumer goods is still the market of means of production, has serious market order disorderly phenomenon. In the operation process of the market of consumer goods, have obvious structure to lose the too big reality of weighing apparatus and market price fluctuation. In 1992 a 1996s, succession arises the retail increasing rate of price index in the phenomenon of two numbers. 1996 afterwards, along with " economic soft landing " success, domestic has arisen effective demand insufficient phenomenon, the retail continued decrease of price index has caused maximum difficulty to the circulation of the market of consumer goods. In the operation of the market of means of production, there is structuralness scarce problem, it has been eliminated from foundation that circulation order disorderly phenomenon of the price system of double track formed by long-term operation always has no.
In the aspect of the market of essential factor, market main vacancy phenomenon ten point is obvious, this shows particularly outstanding in financial market and option market. On option market, get the restriction of enterprise system reform pace , produce to manage enterprise can not enter person really market carries out hedge business, and speculative main part is also not that genuine social idle fund has person, speculative trade belongs to the speculation for social reproduction capital mostly to use. Additionally, the organization situation on the market of essential factor is also unsatisfied, various administrative means intervention markets has destroied operation and the normal growth of market; At the same time, lack must management regulation and basis.
4, domestic and international
Since reforming and opening up, the foreign trade of China has had got great development and domestic and international alternating increasing enlargement. But home market and international market are still in two board pieces , pass different operation rule , the difficulty of butt joint exists in a lot of aspects: ( 1) home market growth degree is lower, export enterprise does not notice to raise merchandise quality, product additional value is very low , lacks competitiveness in the sale of international market. ( 2) foreign trade the market competitive idea of department falls behind , still emphasize that mainly with price competition, export trade is being in in general the extensive state managed. ( 3) domestic enterprise when in production the process of managing , " soft budget" is restrained seriously , is not as machine made as sensitive market reaction, enterprise has not set up globalization sale idea. ( 4) participation and is not enough using international division of labor, the international comprehensive product proportion in export trade is very little , has very low degree with the combination of international market.
The existence of above various factor
The present situation
The spot market of China is not developed very much, circulation channel is not unblocked very much, intermediate link is miscellaneous, it is low that contract honors the agreement to lead , large production and operation enterprise excludes in spot market to undertake price risk outside, is still faced with contract only square promise breaking and fund greatly to be in arrears , quality dispute and cargo transport are not the risk of price factor until position etc..
The appearance of option market makes entire market have increased the safe market of evasive price risk in architecture, but the effect that function develops still gets restriction and the influence of spot market and entire market system situation.
1, spot market do not
Under transitional economic system, especially when option market basis market reform needs form afterwards, have produced pretty intricate contradictory relation between spot market and option market: On the one hand, the original dangerous disposition way of pricing system of soft breeze is abdicated on considerable big degree to market system, have independent interests , the manufacturer who undertakes market risk main part, the demand that has formed the system of option market strength, have created reasonability for development and the establishment of this new-type market organization form; On the other hand, system conversion and the characteristic of the coexistence of double track not balancedness, have again decided to get the administrative intervention with different degree always in correspondence with the financial merchandise on-hand stock, financial instruments and the merchandise on-hand stock of futures kind in price forms process , will influence the price of option market by the price twisted necessity of spot market that this causes to discover function and scatter risk function, make the participator of option market get restriction, the mobility of option market is not high.
2, the development degree
The scale of spot market big and small, mature
( 1) see from the process of producing of option market, it is with the market form and machine made solution that a kind of trade cost lows more the mobility bad, price risk of spot market too the contradictions such as concentration produce and develop to get up. The sharp degree of these contradictions in the development process of spot market as well as the urgentance that solves these contradictions , from foundation, decide to establish the necessariness of the system of option market. The price risk problem that spot market has , in fact, have limited the function of option market to play.
( 2) though spot market will inevitably not definitely ask to have option market to form a complete set to it after reaching certain scale, but the development scale of option market and the degree of its function actual performance get the restriction of the development scale of spot market. It is probably very strong to though evade the requirement of market risk under spot market is in the uniformity condition with not high degree of lower development level and home market , but futures price meeting since market separation and radiation scope limited, comprehensive message is not enough to serve as to divide and lack corresponding authoritativeness , the function of discovery price will not be very strong.
( 3) spot market information condition restrict the development of option market as infrastructure situation. The price discovery of option market and scatter risk function complete is establishment on market economic foundation. Develop these functions fully , ask fund and the on-hand stock on market to have very high mobility , ask the automatic pricing system, market trade place and equipment as well as goods and equipment that has relatively perfect communication to store up to transport facility. But because of the technical last reason on system, the flow in on-hand stock and fund gets the condition of retardance take off, stunted spot market will inevitably store up, transport and complete a business transaction to the storehouse of firm offer to bring many inconveniences and restrictions. These conditions can increase the operation of option market undoubtedly risk, so disadvantage the function of the function of option market.
3, the situation of the
The structure of spot market not perfectance, for realistic operation effect and the actual function of goods market, has limited a boundary that is hard to exceed. Under the structural condition of spot market that perfect and quantity risk and income risk can get better absorption relatively , the positive function of option market will present and play apparently; Under opposite condition, option market scatters the function of risk will receive person because of quantity risk and the serious defect of market structure and the increase of risk is hard to have played normally.
Under the condition with not developed spot market, can you develop futures trading? Whether should you develop corresponding futures trading again after the growth of spot market perfects? The author thinks: The development of a market depends on the objective demand of market mainly, it does not be transfer with the will of person. In short period, market demand may be contained , even quilt alienation, but this will pay out heavy cost, its precedent is too numerous to list. Abroad, a lot of option markets are that under the promotion of market demand, spontaneous real estate is given birth to , the option market of China is when government and the objective demand of market promotion common role next arising. Evidently, condition and the developed degree of spot market whether have completely, and it is not to decide whether can carry out the only basis of option market of making experiments and puting out certain kind, key wants to see market demand. Refering to the condition of Chinese reforming and opening up of 20 years, market economy does not be doubted for the demand of option market. Especially along with China, joining WTO, it is more urgent to alter the demand of making rear state-owned enterprise for a lot of kind futures tradings with the thorough of reform of state-owned enterprises. Therefore, we should be under the reinforced prerequisite of superintendency , take effective measures satisfies this kind of reasonable demand conscientiously , promotes the healthy development of option market.
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