Maintain the mobility of option market , discover that true effective futures price is the two necessary conditions that realize the function of option market; The mobility of option market can not be low , also not is the more good the more, raising mobility should at the same time pay attention to and trail the scale of option market the proportion between the same scale of spot market relation.
Start a kind and a active market , is a and long-term and is complex to work , need certain time and process. Start new kind should from on-hand stock business grabs , active market will insist transparency, openness, standard running as well as big kind principle , avoids that camera bellows is operating.
To make option market develop economic function , first maintain the trade order with normal option market, control the self risk of option market. Carry out the risk monitoring of option market efficiently to insist to be just, transparent , efficient principle, will pay attention to market development development condition, to pay attention to the true validity of futures price.
Have met the electronic trade development tendency of option market with the regular system system with customer coding system of foundation , have solved Chinese option market surely efficiently on degree to have credibility problem and the standard under the hundreds of conditions of medium institution , therefore should know and treat customer coding system correctly , raise the public letter force of option market.
First problem: The price
Maintain the mobility of option market , discover that true effective futures price is the two necessary conditions that realize the function of option market. We say frequently that option market has discovery price , avoid the economic functions such as risk, this is also that we establish and develop the key purpose of option market, option market have management work must take place around this key purpose. And if other invests in the functions such as tool, is the additional function of option market only , can not put the cart before the horse. But not is have option market can develop such economic function well. Practice and theory with the world option market of more than 150 years tell us: Only run to normalize , and have certain market mobility and futures price true effective option market, can just develop economic function comparatively fully. Therefore in the development process of option market, should carry out management innovation and institutional innovation constantly , strengthen market to standardize construction , raise market standard running degree , strengthen market public letter force , guard against and control market risk efficiently. While making option market to have certain mobility, maintenance forms the true validity of price , looks particularly important.
A, scientific
1. Know market mobility problem correctly,
The mobility of option market has low error , can not satisfy the hedge demand of trading and scattering transfer risk; The mobility of option market is too big, need to analyse whether speculative factor error winner, turnover rate has high error, whether have formed futures foam. In active market and raising market mobility at the same time, should pay attention to and trail the scale of option market the proportion between the same scale of spot market relation.
When option market, appear on the market kind is the carrier that market economic function develops. A futures kind may serve in this kind entire industrial chain, offer to avoid the dangerous service of management decision for many related professions. Therefore futures kind is the more rich , kind system perfects the more, function performance also will the more ample, option market is the more big for the role space of national economy. The management goal of option market is for goods market ample performance function condition and the environment with suitable creation, and then the performance that promotes the function of option market. Option market appear on the market kind has certain market mobility, then can develop economic function. Option market has higher mobility , can just scatter market risk fully , makes protecting value person shift risk smoothly, related to on-hand stock, enterprise can just carry out hedge very conveniently using option market , enters when needing into city , when needs finish trade, have to go.
But if think , the mobility of option market is also not overall the more high the more well. The research of the American Chicago place of futures trading department passes for tens of annual merchandise option markets the trade multiple relation between same spot market research, reach such conclusion, have certain tendency and regularity and the scale of option market and is not to break away from the scale of spot market completely between both and increase unlimitedly, also not is multiple is the more good the more, change though not existing with the multiple relation of the historical periods of kind and difference somewhat.
In the development process of option market, is under some conditions , the scale of option market can also surmount the proportion between the general same scale of spot market to concern. If appear on the market in specific historical period, because of option market, kind can not satisfy the demand of social speculative fund comparatively less, the plenty of social concentrations of idle fund when few appear on the market kind speculation; If is under the specific condition of economic growth , since a lot of appear on the market kind lack in relatively accurate, authoritative macroscopic data statistics and long-term forecast, the relevant policy of country is adjusted frequently, in investor goes on for market than disaster long-term analysis and judgment, as well as a lot of companies match to fried hand than fund and take lose the reasons such as service charge comparatively, have promoted the raising of market turnover rate. Besides, it still has some merchandise futures kinds, such as noble metal, since it has the extensiveness of certain financialness and social demand, the multiple between option market and spot market relation is higher than other kinds such as the multiple relation of agricultural product. From the expert of the Tokyo exchange of industrial goods, think that is the option market of fictitious economy in new economic times, along with the development of economic globalization and financial unification, because of the trade behaviors such as arbitrage increase, the scale of option market should present the tendency of strengthening relative to the multiple relation of the scale of spot market, that is said, the mobility of option market will get raising further.
In a word, the market mobility of merchandise futures has certain regularity, the mobility of option market has low error , can not satisfy the hedge demand of trading and scattering transfer risk; The mobility of option market is too big, need to analyse whether speculative factor error winner, turnover rate passes the high hedge of option market imbalance seriously with speculative trade proportion, whether have formed futures foam; In active market and raising market mobility at the same time, should pay attention to and trail the scale of option market the proportion between the same scale of spot market relation.
2. Absorb lesson and
How to does talent make option market have the mobility than winner? The past non-standard practice of some option markets the lesson that brings us is very deep, for example some manager of option market, adopt to pull big household , give promise privately , command and organize the ways such as a few of member unit active markets , have violated the principle " 3 is public" , have harmed the legitimate rights and interests of investor.
When option market enters standard development for new period of stage, it may go if creation market mobility has no shortcut, it is been eager for quick success and instant benefit that any violation is regular , the lucky practice of being anxious to beg , give to just realize masses of investor and the increased market of recovery cause injury.
Active market is a system engineering , needs various joint efforts, practical feasible method is: According to general law and the particularity of different kind, scientific design futures contract and regular system make the option market of this kind accord with the operation law of spot market , are convenient for the related enterprise use on-hand stock; Create comfortable market environment , do the systems such as city business through carrying out , as well as adopt to mitigate the measures such as service charge , reduce the cost of market access; Standard land management market, strict conducted every regular system and high limit reduce artificial factor, strike market control behavior firmly , defend investor legitimate rights and interests , form market public letter force; Cultivate market meticulously , pass to hold seminar, recommendation meeting and the training class of various forms , as well as pass ( news and network) media propagate extensively, advocation market function and popular futures knowledge make large enterprise and investor know futures , understanding futures, participate in futures trading step by step according to demand , enlarge scope and the quantity of market participator constantly.
2, guarantee futures
True effective futures price is the one of prerequisite condition that guarantees that option market develops economic function, if futures price deviates from the real economy seriously, deviate from the basic supply demand relations of spot market, right now option market can neither develop economic function, can not play the part of the role of protecting value to avoid risk , and can still make risk , disturb consumer, circulation order and the production with normal spot market.
Does option market how to form true effective futures price? How management level judges futures price whether in reasonable scope, whether existence serious deviate from or the situation that develops to this direction?
1. First, will analyse correctly
What special needs are pointed out is that as some little futures kinds, under specific condition, than the condition of the supply of material object that arises option market easily and that speculative demand is larger than spot market , cause the price of option market to drive the price rising of spot market.
When appearance this kind of condition, see since coming superficially, futures price and spot price unite to move , seemingly do not have the phenomenon of deviating from; But once the foam of futures price shatters , spot price will also suffer a disastrous decline , aftermath will be unimaginable.
When the such demand and futures price foam of option market drive , spot price under the condition that has no actual demand one rise one falls , for the real economy if related industrial production, consumption and the negative influence of circulation are great, this makes futures price can't not only take the role that guides production, consumption and circulation correctly , can not help related enterprise to avoid to manage risk , and has still increased enterprise to manage risk.
2. Secondly, it is to pay attention
The superintendency person of American option market - the American merchandise committee of futures trading( CFTC) high attention futures price true validity, set economic analysis department and chief economist office, a lot of economists every day close attention , trail have to appear on the market the process of forming of the price of option market as well as the condition of spot market of merchandise, discover suspicious sign , compare research immediately through carrying out the investigations such as big household report system and knowing the conditions such as market trade condition, the supply and demand that passes through together related spot market and price , confirm whether futures price is deviated from seriously with spot price , whether existence market control, guard against and strike market control behavior strictly.
3. Form effective futures price ,
Needs market message accept to know that degree is high , source is extensive, it is extensive to need market participator scope , structural reasonable, running reason, so, then can make the futures price that forms scientific, just, objective, true, effective , make the price of option market objective , reflect the future supply-demand relationship of spot market truely.
Option market only forms true effective futures price, then can carry out production, consumption and circulation correctly for related profession to offer decision-making reference , related profession enterprise talent goes on effective protect value to avoid dangerous trade.
Second problem: The
Appear on the market kind is the foundation of option market, because the economic function of option market revolves around to appear on the market , kind takes place. Any activism of a kind, need to go through since appear on the market for initial stage is not active , until being step by step active, comparison is active, till the process of considerable activism. How do you know this process? Do you adopt what measure to shorten this process? It is different to know , different practice, its result often also is Jiong is different. Start a kind and a active market , is a and long-term and is complex to work , need certain time and process , will have enough ideological preparation to do a lot of hard careful works to endure to live in loneliness , is impossible to accomplish in one move.
A, new article
Why must you emphasize that put out big kind? Should consider from so some aspects: One is the scale of spot market of big kind is greater, industrial chain is relatively extensive, it is greater that option market develops the space of economic function , field is extensive, role and the influence of option market to national economy are also greater; 2 is the industrial field that kind is concerned with relatively extensively, market participator scope plays and runs smoothly for the relatively extensive, structural relatively reasonable function, that is helpful for market; 3 is sufficient, more easy for spot market to provide quantity, realize the balance of fund and goods, it is helpful to control market risk. Therefore should consider actively to put out those big kinds that are related closely with the national economy and the people's livelihood. Besides, option market puts out new kind, should still consider the marketization degree of kind, conform with international market the factors such as degree.
2, start kind,
Start a kind , will first solve one to know problem , is
Have no intervention of speculator, market lacks mobility,
However, speculator when kind starts initial stage also hard intervention, because it is low that kind starts the mobility of youth market, after speculator enters market, can not quit in time very probably, this influences greatly the speculator who pursues price difference to participate in the initiative of trade.
Actually, which is investor most possible and most advanced to enter this market? Practice shows , still those hedge persons who have over-the-counter trading background are also that the related field person on-hand stock intervenes market first. Because these businesses on-hand stock are engaged in operation campaign in the market economic society that is filled with risk , they understand thoroughly for spot market, most care about have to also care about the change of the price of spot market and the price of option market, once having price bad appearance, they can carry out issue to show arbitrage trade , and need not consider that momentary receipts and payment are convenient, they right now participation in thought is forward over-the-counter trading, even if can not come out in time, sell side may enter through delivering the goods and buying may trade through receiving goods finish.
Therefore the large related enterprise on-hand
So, in starting kind process, will go deep into the large related enterprise on-hand stock , do sturdy careful propaganda, popularity, recommendation and investigation work , make them know futures and understanding futures as early as possible , and then participate in futures trading according to enterprise self demand.
3, insist to
A active market will solve a principled
In the brief history of Chinese option market, the quantity that had because of futures trading counted is too much, it is serious that kind repetition appears on the market , for survival and development, between futures trading place the competition of fight market share exception is intense, when start kind and active market, non-standard pull the behaviors of short period such as big household to occur from time to time, have caused many risk incidents give afterwards market development the precedent left not well.
Capital is to speak market principle, pursuit interests is biggest , pulling big household active market to necessity and the non-standard means of big household corresponding promise will pay out cost , have talked about what condition privately , have made what promise, whether can carry out , enforcement these promises whether violation 3 public principles? The market control etc. that tacitly consent to big household break the law to violate rule behavior , can cause risk accident finally, some shameful means morning and evenings want public is many, get the sanction of morals and law. In a word, no free lunch and non-standard behavior have infinite future trouble always.
Therefore no matter being in what situation, in view of what needs, active market will insist to normalize running , does not violate rule, do not pull big household , do not do to promise privately, is to pass through the careful, lasting work in-depth , promotion market is step by step active.
4, insist transparent
It is broad to start the measure of market accuse , is all right truthfully to do the arbitrage trade system of city business system and established science , raise market mobility through institutional innovation. Can not camera bellows operation, to accept the supervisor of market. At the same time, active market still considers both extensiveness , can not be a few of members only, participate with investor, and it is to face masses of member and investor. Through open propagative, recommendation campaign, start the related enterprise and professional investor on-hand stock extensively to enter market , rely on the participation of numerous investor , increase thickness and the width of market.
3th problem: The risk
Option market is a double-edged sword also as risk management tool. Because option market is the economic function of risk management tool, need to realize through the mechanism of futures trading, this kind of implement of futures trading the lever of the system of earnest money mechanism as well as its high antagonism, two-way trade, time limit and material object complete a business transaction etc. characteristic, make current goods price appear to fluctuate considerably especially single direction considerably the conditions such as fluctuation, is easy to cause market risk very much. Therefore to make option market develop economic function , first maintain the trade order with normal option market, control the self risk of option market. A option market that often arises risk accident can not get investor trust.
A, reach market risk
1. Control market risk to
What is most basic is that requirement the self management of option market standardize , insist to treat city in accordance with law , manage market strictly according to assigned program and market regular system. Can not hit the banner of risk control to make risk , or have dissolved the risk of a part of person , but have increased the risk of other a part of person, or when a part of person knows the facts the condition that a part of person does not know the facts takes off , adopt market disposal measure. Under normal market condition, should run according to the rule agreed in advance, high limit reduces artificial factor , can not enact temporary measure at will under the condition that market arises risk symptom of a trend , can not intervene market at will to analyse and go deep into conscientiously the method that research still has before enacting these temporary measures more well to guide and dissolve risk.
2. Control market risk,
Notice reinforcement as market is daily to trail, supervise and inspect , is good at to discover market risk symptom of a trend and sign , guard against and strike market control behavior. Should trail market fund quantity and trade quantity at any time , hold the change condition of storehouse quantity and its structural change and futures price, the monitoring futures of real time price fluctuates considerably, especially single direction price succession considerably the condition of fluctuation condition as well as futures price and spot price that conforms etc.. In the process of futures trading, the result of market control behavior many cause futures price the same price of spot market deviate from seriously, the process many embodiments of and market control when plenty of funds enter city , hold minute as well as the concentration of storehouse structure the behaviors such as storehouse.
3. Control market risk to
When spot market is not enough to normalize , developed condition takes off , spot market is hard to form the price of unification, authority and standard, this gives the judgment price of option market the same price of spot market conform degree as well as whether the difficulty that brings reasonably greatly. Especially for some little futures kinds or big futures kind seasonal factor influence greater, under the condition that the demand of option market is larger than the demand of spot market , how to judge the reasonability of futures price are more difficult. However, this and not is equal to need not care about the change of futures price , the process of forming of not care about futures price whether standard, because have market risk concentrate reflection finally when the same price of spot market and the exceptional fluctuation of futures price deviate from seriously. Therefore when discovering the suspicious sign of control market, it must be highly alert, tight to monitor , holds various market conditions at any time, when supply , supply , guard against and control the development of state of affairs in time.
2, dissolve market
1. Dissolve market
It should be in market risk to dissolve the best opportunity of risk and the time that market tendency is still in sprout state , right now, market is in dim state, many empty both sides think that have the opportunity , market has considerable mobility , measures receipts and payment only to be easy relatively. Therefore, should guard against market risk the reach of strategic pass, early, trail , foresee early , decide early , take action early , eliminate risk hidden trouble in time, guard against risk do not Ran, with less cost, gain greater effect. In order to avoid that increase along with the accumulation of contradiction and the passing of time to dissolve the difficulty of risk , avoid to cause greater risk accident eventually , reduce the injury for that market causes to the maximum extent.
2. Dissolve market risk,
In dissolving market risk process, the manager of option market should maintain unblocked message exchange between member unit , listens attentively the voice of member and market conscientiously , knows and grasps market reaction and investor state; At the same time, it should not be taking losing the public letter force of option market as cost , shifts risk to member unit and investor , and should fulfill a line superintendency duty conscientiously, undertaking to honor the agreement to mention protect responsibility , normalize running , protect market to participate in different aspects legitimate rights and interests.
4th problem: Perfect
A, assurance Chinese
Chinese option market has only the history of more than 10 years , belongs to emerging market , still lacks experience in a lot of aspects such as system construction and the standard management of option market; At the same time, Chinese option market is in Chinese economy, is from the process that planned economy turns rail to market economy , it is typical and burgeoning to add to turn the market of rail. Burgeoning add to turn the option market of rail will realize standard to develop steadily, the standard that will inevitably need a relatively long-term process and passes some years is regulated , Chinese option market has had the condition of standard development preliminarily. Besides, our very lucky, Chinese option market sends advantage fully after using , have carried out from establishment modern computer matches trade way voluntarily, as well as advanced customer coding system. These institutional innovations have raised market efficiency maximumly, on certain degree, have restricted non-standard market behavior , have increased market credibility degree , have offered system foundation for the further standard development of goods market.
2, implement customer
1. Customer coding system meets
Chinese option market implement customer coding system, for the investor who enters option market , from futures company according to certain rule draw up a coding for it, when futures trading place reports. It has very strong permeability, timeliness and strictance , forms powerful deterrence role, that option market of western developed country has no superintendency of coding system and American option market implement, is sufficient make those violate rule person and minute storehouse person and control market person are terrified; Just like each citizen in modern civilized society, possess one to confirm the code of identity , in the electronic computer trade times of networking, each investor also needs one to confirm the coding of its identity. Therefore, though the form of coding the future may also occur change, however, customer coding system will not allow to doubt land continued existence goes down. Should say , the arising of customer coding system has met the international development tendency of option market , and accords with the national conditions of China.
2. Implement customer coding
Option market is that market economy develops the outcome of certain stage, evidently developing the needs of option market certain system condition, when economic system turns the option market with burgeoning national establishment of rail period, first, need to solve market order on system to be not enough to normalize , credibility degree not higher problem. If option market of our country has no, carries out coding system at the beginning , is so hard to say very much option market can normalize the degree today in shorter time. Besides, coding system has still raised market efficiency, when American option market, since its trade way of gesticulating , have not carried out customer coding system, market superintendency person then can only grasp the true condition of investor through big household report system, carrying out the customer quantity of big household report to reach market hold the 70% of storehouse quantity always more , have reduced superintendency efficiency , have increased superintendency cost; When Chinese option market, since having got customer coding system, market a line superintendency person can directly know the trade condition of every customer coding immediately and holds storehouse condition, under normal market condition, need not customer carries out big household report through member unit, so, have raised superintendency efficiency and superintendency intensity.
Thus it can be seen, when having regulated customer coding system for the standard of Chinese option market, have made positive contribution, we should be in the Chinese standard development process of option market , the further positive role of developing customer coding system.
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