Influencing the factor of gold price have which?

1 , the supply-demand
Since gold has merchandise, currency and financial attribute simultaneously, is also the symbol of asset, therefore gold price not only gets the influence of merchandise supply-demand relationship , is very sensitive for the change of economy and politics, the metropolises such as petroleum crisis and financial crisis arouse gold price rise suddenly to slump. Besides, investment demand also has major influence for the change of gold price.
World gold market supply-demand
See from history, last century 70 decade former, more world more gold more price more basic comparison is stabilized , has not large fluctuation. World gold fluctuate considerably is last century the matter that just occurs after 70 decade. For instance: The American implement of 1900 years gold standard, at that time, a ounce of 20.67 dollars and gold standard maintain desolate period, in 1934, Luo Si Fu raises golden price to a ounce of 35 dollars. 1944 establishment lay mines to pause forest system reality is " the U.S. dollar standard of a kind of convertible gold ", since this kind of currency system can bring surely positive influence to postwar economic reconstruction, golden price keeps in 35 dollars , always lasts to 1970.
In last 30 years, gold price fluctuation is violent, the gold price minimum / ounce of 253.8 dollars( July 20,1999), the highest / ounce of 850 dollars( January 18,1980). 1979 lows is the gold price stage with the most violent fluctuation to beginning of 1980. The price of November 26,1979 ( according to NYMEX futures price ) is the / ounce of 390 dollars, and before 2 months, on January 18,1980, gold price has risen the / ounce of 850 dollars , becomes the highest point of past 30 years. Soon afterwards in the half time of one year, under price again falls to return 400 dollars , and when soon afterwards in of more than 20 years price is below 400 dollars basically , between 300-200 U.S. dollar, it is continued to have maintained pretty long time price below 300 dollars 4 years, from January 1998, it is to March 2002. From the gold price recovery of the end of March 2002 on 300 dollars, on December 1,2003, return to 400 dollars again, on December 1,2005, the price breakthrough / ounce of 500 dollars and the breakthrough / ounce of 600 dollars of April 10,2006 reach recent highest some 723 dollars on May 11,2006.
Cause gold price violent fluctuation guide since being 70 decade lay mines to pause the disintegration of forest system. In 1973, nun g loose government announces that does not promise that U.S. dollar convertible gold and golden price are thorough and that U.S. dollar unhook begins to float freely. Since then, the fluctuation of gold price has embodied the balanced influence of gold currency and merchandise attribute to the greatest extent.
Since gold has world reserve function, gold had been regarded as to have the asset extensive application of long-term reserve value in the reserve of public as well as private asset. In which, the authority of gold reserves the proportion with pretty big possession, present world the 150 thousand tons of gold contracts that have mined , the reserve fund of countries center trip has 40 thousand tons approximately, what individual reserve have the tons more than 30 thousand. Therefore on world, the change of gold official reserve quantity will directly influence the change of world gold price. Last century 70 decade, after the floating system of exchange rate mounts historical stage, the currency function of gold gets weakening in order to reserve the function of asset to get reinforcement. The countries official quantity of gold reserve increases , after having directly caused last century for 70 decade, world gold price rises substantially.
Last century 890 decade, each central bank begins to treat the role of gold in foreign exchange reserve again. Central bank stands independently gradually as well as increasing marketization makes it emphasize more that reserve the profit of asset combination. Under this kind of background, the no position of the gold of any interest income ( except participate in borrowing besides market can get profit ) drops. Partial central banks decide to reduce gold reserve , have reduced 10% as a result in 1999 than the quantity of gold reserve of 1980 years , sell gold because of major country , cause the gold price at that time to be in depression state.
In recent years measuring since major western country sells for gold reach sell - - to golden agreement" Washington agreement( CBGA1)", assigned CBGA member sells quantity to gold every year, do not exceed 400 tons, as put in the gold amount of market She have decided upper limit, at the same time still have some national especially Asian foreign exchange reserves in adjustment them of country - - increases the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserve.

2 , other
( 1) world major
U.S. dollar exchange
Since gold market price is marked the price to with U.S. dollar, U.S. dollar appreciation can make gold price be declining , U.S. dollar devaluation can again promote gold price to rise. U.S. dollar winner weak can produce very major influence in the aspect of gold price. But when some special periods, especially gold tendency, it is very strong or very weak period, gold price can also get rid of U.S. dollar influence, walk out of alone tendency.
U.S. dollar strong general representative American domestic economic atmosphere is good, American domestic stock and bond will get investor to catch up eagerly to hold, gold gets weakening as the function of value storage means; The U.S. dollar decrease of exchange rate often waits with inflation and the depression of the stock market relevant, gold protect value function again embody again, when U.S. dollar devaluation is aggravated with inflation, can often upset to protect value and speculation demand for gold to go up. August 1971 and February 1973, American government announces twice that U.S. dollar devalues , when U.S. dollar remits price to be declining substantially as well as the factor roles such as inflation take off , at the beginning of 1980, gold price goes up to historical highest level , breaks through the / ounce of 800 dollars.
In retrospect past 20 years, history and U.S. dollar are strong for other western currencies, the golden price on world market is declining , if U.S. dollar little devalues , , golden price will pick up gradually. In past 10 years, golden price and U.S. dollar tendency have 80% of contrary correlations.
( 2) petroleum
Mark a price because of the price of world major petroleum on-hand stock and option market with U.S. dollar, the fluctuation of petroleum price has reflected world petroleum supply-demand relationship on the one hand, on the other hand, also reflect the change of world inflation rate and the change of U.S. dollar exchange rate. Petroleum price and gold price indirect interaction.
Through comparing for the world tendency and gold price tendency of crude price, may discover that it is more that the rises of the futures price and world gold price of crude oil fall to have the time of positive barrier relation.
( 3) world political
It is major and political on world , war incident will influence golden price. Government is war or pays in large quantities to maintain domestic economic steady increase, political situation upheaval plenty of investors turn to gold to protect value investment , etc. and metropolis enlarge the demand of gold, stimulate is raised on golden price. As World War II and America the more war, the Thai coup of 1976 years and 1986" Iranian door" incident, make golden price have the rising of different degree. Again as " the 9.11 of 2001 years " incident have make gold price Biao the $300 of ceiling price that rises to same year.
( 4) other
Besides the above-mentioned factor that influences golden price , the intervention of world financial organization moves about , the policy regulation of the central financial institutions of region and homeland can also produce major influence for the tendency of world gold price.