Zhao Ben Shan and Gao Xiu Min short artistic creation " sell to turn ", presumably, all still remain fresh in memory. Turn La, turn La, turn La sells to turn kidnaps and sells! After has smiled, thinks , what is its essence after all? Suddenly You! ! ! All walks of life necessary the spirit for " sell to turn " carry forward , suddenly You, catch suddenly You!
This not, the profession
Really, when real estate leads figure Wang Shi to throw make theory of inflection point afterwards, various data appears successively, have given strong evidence: It is reduced that the department of 10 thousand takes is compelled to follow wind with some building plates , conclude quantity to wither rapidly , market looks around mood is strong, it is more low than the room of price limit, that the Guangdong room of price limit still has building plate when puting out. For a short while news crane Li, seem the doomsday of the profession of real estate to really want to come; This though also has different sound in duration, however when online friend in a scold sound disappearance. Public opinion and public opinion cannot be violated.
Theory of inflection point appears afterwards,
In the Spring Festival, it is around, is being in minimum grain period of the market of real estate. In the Spring Festival, it is most important holiday in one year for Chinese, nearly move up one month is having prepared. Each big office institution and enterprise, regardless of official, worker and peasant, as soon as entering the twelfth month, it is absent-minded to begin , begin to take care of the matter of celebrating the New Year. Long time when the work of other places will calculate early early to return native land and relatives and friends reunite , school will organize examination , has a holiday , the door of the Ministry of Communication organizes transport during the Spring Festival( still have do not expect to snow calamity influence) with full attention, office institution busy year-end checks inventory and visit between, each enterprise that has business relations busy settlement and demand to want debt , especially some officials and family members, return get busy receipt courtesy and give presents, try to establish a relationship and run officer etc., in a word all walks of life busy have to be be extremely happy , the matter of buying house is put basically , so house concludes quantity do not glide rapidly to just blame, not letter words the statistical data in 5 years trembles to fall see , it is not this law. It is not only so, after the Spring Festival, first month of the lunar year is also the desolate issue of a lot of professions, also, can not hope to improve , is under the influence of theory of inflection point , it will be been slower probably still that in this year, market gets warm again. However, draw a conclusion to say room price begins to have droped , I see a little evidence deficiency.
See that in last 10 years, which and the staple commodity of side have reduced us , which have risen in price , have some laws inside? Though, agricultural product are not quite stabilized but total tendency is increase , steel has risen in price , coal has risen in price , artificial cost increase still has many( with pork is representative) increases of daily necessities , still have the room of crazy rise certainly price and price of land; Telecommunications capital cost is reduced , the electronic products such as computer are reduced , automobile is reduced , RMB is not costly ( in domestic); Home appliance aspect liter has to fall , stock daily have liter have to fall ( a lot of person that does spiritual split, He He). From these messages, can we see what?
( a) increase is many, it is few as reducing price; ( b) raw material the general trend of increase is not reversible to turn; ( c) man-days the increase of cost is unavoidable; ( d) inflation problem always exists basically.
If do further analysis again, will discover: ( 1) man-days cost always rises in price , and since resource is step by step scarce, causes raw material with artificial cost increase to rise in price constantly; ( 2) the merchandise with intellectual accomplishment and the technology of artificial intelligence as dominant can reduce price , because it is little that raw material takes proportion, once the quantity of production and marketing goes up considerably, cost meeting quick stand is thin; The more( 3) is influenced by raw material and artificial cost merchandise, the more it is big to increase cost range; ( 4) get 1th, 2 two factor common roles, the price tendency of some merchandises has not very obvious meeting , is the different weight influence of two factors as well as between not at the same time the two factors in part are mutually balanced and rich Yi result, for example home appliance and automobile.
Say that here, clever friend believes that has seen , it is that the profession of real estate belongs to actually( 3) kind condition, total tendency surely rises still, even the influence that gets policy as well as some foreign factors , fluctuation is also temporary.
Now, come to see the harm of theory
It is first, suddenly You is consumer's. If you think room price has entered down passageway, should buy and have not buy , buy again when waiting continued rising will complain incessantly. In last few years, public opinion always when expectation room price decrease, government also enacts the measure of adjusting control constantly, room price is strong. Take the charge of will winner always when remind have the consumer's room of genuine demand price will not fall , have been scolded dog blood shower nozzle , fact proves , he says have not been wrong.
It is second, suddenly in You little developer. Some developers for that economic law lacks the research in-depth can produce panic therefore , fleeing one after another is away from market, other developers can encounter injury and experience in short period to go bankrupt or take over. As Pan Shi Yi says , Wang Shi throws theory of inflection point to put in order gateway actually. When government for room price headache endlessly important juncture, Wang Shi station comes out is just time, on the one hand, gain foot eyeball, have won the good impression of consumer, on the other hand for next step take over integration and cleaning gateway have established solid foundation, making the market of real estate last move towards oligopoly times. We should appreciate Pan Shi Yi and take the charge of will winner, have said real words( our rough root says that has no weight really), after all, the market of a monopoly also has benefit for them , leaves 10 developers nation wide only, surely still have two they, so these words they are not only said for self, say still for the people of the whole country.
It is 3th, suddenly You government. Theory of inflection point throw , the department of 10 thousand in many cities reduce price first , recent house concludes quantity rapid atrophy, it is confirming the arrival of inflection point invariably. We believe this is a table elephant, but it is alert to make government have relaxed , have not gone to study room further room as well as the not reasonable place of price price climbs continuously the genuine reason of liter. As Lang Xian levels professor to say , measure foundation of adjusting control of government has no to grasp the essence of problem , the speculation of organization and the recessiveness wealth of corrupt official are just the important reasons that pushes Gao Fang Jia ( here no longer detailed description). So, a time afterwards, room price can still recover rising, and the not reasonable composition that can be contained still very can so cause continued injury for the people of the whole country. As comment says , government some years come adjusting control have become air conditioner , one of Wang Shi" theory of inflection point" and reduce action have directly caused room price is declining completely , have untied for government to surround. If really be so, directly leting Wang Shi also hold minister of the Ministry of Construction do not solve?
Wang Shi is also businessman, put aside him to reduce price with initiative do not say , still advocate current house " quality price is room high " and " 34 years do not buy "! 34 years do not buy room he takes what to make money? These speeches have been obvious, do not conform with his businessman identity to suit.
Our government and people should
We also see that the Chinese market of real estate is true and not normal, room price really has is empty and high. Should fall , must fall for the people's livelihood, this we believe thoroughly. For the people's livelihood, our Premier Wen goes to Singaporean investigation, the train of thought of guarantee housing straight one step of one step pays Zhu practice, this is the blessing of whole people. Price will decrease room, will be reasonable , first get accurate pulse, find the reason of ultimacy , and then rely on the true measure propulsion of one step, till stabilize when reasonable scope, but firm can not suddenly You, can not sell to turn , can not kidnap and sell more!
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