Exceed to fall A share Hong Kong"s share temptation international hot money

Matter has , is fraudulent unusually. Near future since in, Chinese the stock market Hu , is deep , port has gone through depth to be declining. In this process, international market has become the wind vane of Chinese A share and Hong Kong's share especially the tendency of American market. Last week, beautiful share falls , Chinese the stock market also falls; Beautiful share rise, Chinese the stock market also rebound. The stock market that separates vast ocean and two banks has formed nearly perfect resonance. A share destiny is what with beautiful share perfect resonance? According to the explanation of physics, two objects occur resonance , need to have identical vibration frequency. Have that Chinese the stock market and international the stock market consistent resonance frequency? For this, the explanation of many persons is: The market of Hong Kong is the mature market of internationalization long ago, the Chinese A place of the stock market the Chinese economic degree of " globalization " of relying on is more and more deep, so, the tendency nature of the A site of the stock market more and more gets the influence of international economic atmospheric time deeply, with international market unite to move sex is more and more strong. This explanation is that two markets unite the necessary condition of moving only, instead of serve as to want condition. The A site of the stock market is now still not open market, external fund can not be gotten in and out freely, RMB is also not that the market under free exchange currency and this kind of condition still claims not last "internationalization". Therefore Hong Kong's share is normal with beautiful share resonance, A share the resonance of same beautiful share is not so normal. Return one step to say , assumption A share also already "internationalization" , but as far as the current discrepancy of the Sino-U.S. economic basic surface of two countries is concerned, matter looks a little deceitful and different unavoidably. Current fact is: International economy circle nearly unanimously recognizes , American economic front faces marijuana tired - - since estate foam breaks , cause loan disturbance, America is being in the financial crisis of far-reaching a influence, the currently urgent matter of American government has economic stimulate, confrontation declines. The condition of China has great difference. Though as the global American economy of the economic most important engine, falling into decline, implicate Chinese economy inevitably on certain degree, nearly have no person however think that in 2008, Chinese economic growth rate will be lower than 8% - - this now sees most the saying of low-key. The most optimistic saying is put forward by overseas economist , says that is to be able to drag global economy this time from mud natural pond, non China does not be. Say simplely, a this Sino-U.S. economy go up , one takes off. That should also go to two different directions according to the stock market of traditional theory and each, instead of play " what perfect resonance " just as. Organization does leave empty , A share Hong Kong's share continuity takes off Cuo this week, share A has surpassed the imagination of people with the tendency of Hong Kong's share: American the stock market continuously 3 trades day little receipt is high, A share and port share considerably take off Cuo. Is this a kind of what condition? It is to deviate from! It is fictitious and economic with basic surface deviate from seriously. What factor causes Chinese the stock market to arise the tendency deviated from seriously? Reach if seeking reason, certainly or seeking. For example, China is safe( 601.318 thousand) large-scale again financing, have deepened the worry of people for the administration layer stern policy of adjusting control; For example, people worry about that it is serious that domestic few big commercial banks may lose in American loan crisis; For example, people worry about that tighten up money market , cause the fund of the stock market to lose blood seriously; For example, many Chinese province cities even reduce Bao Xue, may cause serious economic losses. Things like that may be lifted a lot. Have not been wrong , above-mentioned factor may cause the stock market is declining , but they may change rhythm and the speed of market only , but do not have the strength that changes tendency. Recent the stock market is declining , have explained a fact, that is people are worrying , when panic. The bad expression of recent the stock market, have magnified panic more. Deciding fictitious market trend, it is the behavior of participator self originally , confidence and the psychology of self decision everything. And confidence is extremely fragile thing originally, gently one Chu, it will break probably to smash. If Chinese the stock market put some years ago, this kind of panic may understand completely, at that time, it is the market of private investor, market is not rational , " sheep crowd psychologies " can decide market direction more. Current market for institutional investor dominant, actually, has institutional investor also also become overnight from " rush sheep "" sheep crowd"? This is just the essence of problem. So, I doubt , not, I believe that institutional investors are doing air country the stock market extremely rationally, simultaneous, in perfect orderly. U.S. dollar devaluation, global asset weight estimates in the beginning machine is so and perfect: It is taken off directly that current international economic atmosphere turns urgently, capital market from time to time Bao the "land mine" of the loud large scale a huge sum of loss of financial institution, personal investor a cup of bow snake shadow, one has sign of disturbance do not sum cost land sell , compete appearance seize road flee. Organization throws one casually two throw sheet, being sufficient to cause plenty of frightenednesses throw plate with wind , hit index ruthlessly ruthlessly to go down , it is extremely cheap to do empty cost, efficiency is easy Hu usually is high. In 8 days, America unites to store up twice, lower interest to share 125 basic points , indication world settlement the devaluation tide of new round of currency U.S. dollar has pulled open big curtain. Economists have long pointed out , this time from Qiao treat? Rope Mr Luo Si defines first , becomes the western world "financial crisis" of the common recognition of market overnight, its source lies in have lasted for some years last round of U.S. dollar devaluation tide. Is low because of breath mouth, the relax of money market, mobility spills over , global currency and asset estimate value again, have brewed minerals, gold, petroleum and the estate foam of serious American and western world the price of and all non-renewable resources has risen completely transformed. Now, American estate foam and its related loan asset experience are inflicted heavy losses on. America unites to store up to put out succession considerably lower interest action to meet is for crisis , salvation market is also new round of U.S. dollar devaluation , global asset value weight estimates to knock to sound starting gun. New times have begun , clever people begin to do preparation. Is this Thursday, the permanent raw index of Hong Kong has been declining from the high point of early stage 25%, state-owned enterprise index has been declining 38%, exceed big city average level; 14 last certificate index trades day is declining 21.5%. A share and port share the main force that is declining , is people unanimously think that in future Chinese economic development, the rich state-owned enterprise of act enough weight and gain advantage coils blue chip. The biggest petroleum excavation business Chinese petroleum in China( 601.857 thousand), its A profit rate of the stock market falls to 33 times, the H profit rate of the stock market only 13 times. The one of biggest insurance device in China China safety, A, the price of H share had been not only cut in half , and edge has fallen to buttocks. Exceed to fall share A and Hong Kong's share temptation international heat Chinese the stock market with current money( include share A and Hong Kong's share in) has gone to the value interval that a risk lows very much; Will when the value weight that U.S. dollar devaluation causes estimates , estimating worth , can go to high finance, estate, gold, petroleum, coal, nonferrous metal and the related professions such as dark metal minerals, forest and city infrastructure further considerably surely, now, it is clever choice undoubtedly to hold its stock asset; In will in future 1 years Chinese economic development plays the role of important role , the stock asset in the professions such as service, circulation and the related manufacture of consumer goods of gain advantage in Chinese consumer increase, its value remains people mental discernment knows pearl. Current Chinese A share and the Hong Kong's site of the stock market, have applied fully honey , fat oil is roast, grow to make sound , color and luster is golden yellow, fragrance 4 overflows , is giving off fatal temptation to all sides guests. For being anxious escape, U.S. dollar devalues to lose , seek the world of excess repayment heat money, have exceeded Chinese the stock market that falls , simply is the favor of God - - day knows this such coordination hot money the true identity of the "God" of tendency! To time, perhaps, they can press Chinese the stock market to the dozen in so perfect period , Cui the "God" of broken people for the Chinese confidence of the stock market issues " a international medal of good food ". Source: Manage money weekly