The 3 big focuses of the stock market of 2008 years problem

In 2008, how to will Chinese the stock market be deduced? Can the general layout of bull market occur change in this year? Do whether Olympic Games can become the Chinese ox of the stock market turn the watershed of bear? 2008 should how to invest in the stock market, it is continuity 2006 , 2007 hold share to treat rise strategy change still? In the field and problem that above-mentioned investor most pays attention to , the 12th class Chinese capital market that famous expert convenes in now has spread out intense argument on forum. General layout can change bull market? " the Chinese general layout of the stock market of bull market of 2008 years will not change , but it should be slow ox quotations. " Beijing director Cao Feng Qi of university financial and bond research center shows on meeting, present Chinese the stock market has been that the steady development of the macroeconomics of 2008 years and the barometer of Chinese economy will be the prerequisite with good Chinese the stock market. He at the same time points out that in this year, the tendency of the stock market also has many uncertainty factors, tight monetary policy will produce great influence for the fund surface of the stock market , will be so vibration quotations in 2008. The central university bond futures research institute of finance and economics grows to congratulate winner expresses identification for this. He thinks that the stock market of 2008 years is surely the continuity of bull market, but he also thinks that the tendency variable of the stock market of this year is many, macroeconomics whether appearance inflection point and tight monetary policy reduce degree how to , American economy whether the uncertainty factors such as decline with obvious appearance will influence the tendency of the stock market of this year, at the same time, Olympic Games holds , share finger futures put out etc. incident, may arouse the concussion of the stock market. In the swallow principal China of the capital university of overseas Chinese, livelihood seems that market stabilizes for a long time to increase although be prospect , but at some times, need to sprinkle some cold waters , will pay out great cost otherwise. He thinks that relative this is former for two years, the investment value of the stock market of 2008 years relative already large decreasing, because market has been in one to estimate value area high, so " it needs vibration and whole firmly, needs digestion ". It is considered that China gives birth , the factor of policy considerations the influence for that the stock market of 2008 years produces possible can surpass market to estimate. He says that once the supply policy, monetary policy as well as fiscal policy of the stock market produce material influence for the stock market, present the stock market is also pretty big toward the space gone down. Is the Olympic Games the watershed of the stock market? The Olympic Games that attracts worldwide attention will hold in Beijing in this year. For Beijing Olympic Games will produce what kind of influence for the Chinese tendency of the stock market, in field for this, view is different. Cao Feng Qi thinks that Olympic Games will not become the watershed of this ship Chinese bull market of the stock market. Olympic Games will take affect for a promotion that Chinese economy produces very well, it will not cause , have good the stock market before the Olympic Games , the result that does not be all right after the Olympic Games. " actually, the Olympic Games has brought a lot, invest in opportunity, after the Olympic Games, we can still have more investment opportunity," he thinks , before the Olympic Games throwing stock the investor that happens will surely eat to lose. It is strong to congratulate and do not identify above-mentioned viewpoint. When he looks , if the opinion of " this ship quotations of bull market can only continue Olympic Games " more universal words, so, the result of arising may be that Olympic Games does not still convene , the stock market is gone down first. Therefore he thinks that Olympic Games will produce certain influence for the tendency of the stock market. Congratulate winner says , Olympic Games may become the tendency watershed of the stock market. He thinks that Chinese the stock market after Olympic Games must satisfy 3 conditions if thinking of continuity to go well: It is gone down that one is obvious for the economy of China to have not appeared after Olympic Games, arise obvious inflection point; 2 is that the macro-control of first half of the year reaches purpose, price gets restraint and the policy relative relax of adjusting control of second half of the year; 3 is that international economy has not arisen obvious decline. " do not satisfy this 3 conditions, after Olympic Games, I do not value. " congratulate winner says. It is operating to hold share to treat rise or wave band? The investment opportunity for this year, congratulate strong analysis points out , it will have a wave quotations at the end of April before probably, because in April, annual report is announced , and the achievement of stock company of 2007 years is surely to increase substantially, market surely responds for this. Since in 2008, the growth of stock company will be given a discount , so after the end of April, investor may want to have emphasized , outstanding is Olympic Games immediately after being April, right now, it is many that the variable of market tendency may compare. Congratulate winner thinks , it should be changed that in 2007 and in 2006, investor holds the train of thought to be risen of share. " the time of covering share last year the year before last grows the more turn time the more easily, but in this year, variable is too many, concussion meeting is greater, hold the profit to be risen of share blindly possibility will not be very good , risk may be great. " but Cao Feng Qi thinks , a important characteristic of 2008 Chinese capital markets will be: Chinese the stock market enters value investment times. He says that invests in Chinese the stock market in 2008, can not see quotations, and it is the basic surface that wants to see stock and will like the company of city; To stir-fry stock, do not stir-fry quotations. " stock will stir-fry stock, high quality stock, will especially stir-fry high quality share, I advocate to hold for a long time. " he says.